Putin and Trump are trapped by the system
The new year was very dynamic for Russia in basic directions – USA, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, China, Israel and East Europe.
Before that, on December 23rd 2016 during the Ministry of Defense meeting, Putin declared that “Russia is stronger than any potential aggressor”. He said that on purpose only few days before the new US president Donald Trump went into the White House.
It is not clear if Putin foresaw the sharp turn of the new American administration in comparison with the pre-election declarations of Trump. More important is that Putin repeated his warnings from Munich 10 years earlier, where he said that the USSR downfall is the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the XX century which broke the world's balance, that the one pole world is the worst scenario and that Russia will do everything to restore the USSR-USA balance, i.e. the mutual deterrence.
On December 22nd Putin said that strategic parity is restored, and that Russia “will destroy any aggressor”. That's true. During the last five years the Russian's military power grew while the West military power went down.
20 years ago USA and NATO made strategic mistake by thinking that from now and forever the West will be the global geopolitical hegemone and in the future will lead only local wars, so called “humanitarian interventions”.
Translated, that means that international law is not working and the rules are written by the winners.
After the USSR downfall, US decided that they are the only winner and started to rewrite the rules. But now it is clear that the winners place is vacant and that not only Russia but China are pretending to take it. The times of Anglo-Saxons, supported by the Zionism, are over.
Ten years after Munich-1, on February 14th 2017, again in Munich, the foreign minister Lavrov declared that “we are watching the end of the postWestern world”.
The West will need time to understand what was said. Meanwhile the only real currency of international politics will be tanks, missiles, satellites, submarines, airplanes and soldiers. Everything else are empty words.On the negotiation table the military power will be the only factor which rules.
The economic crisis is everywhere /except China/. USA and Russia are sinking into the swamp of the neoliberalism. And because of it the front stage is taken by the military factors which bring the danger of new world war.
For Putin, the biggest problem are the internal affairs. The so called “putinism” is dying, based on bureaucracy and control over the oligarchs. The combination between bureaucracy and oligarchs in the liberal frame is a nuke. That is why we can expect soon a model change- from neoliberal to industrial patern. Why? Because there is shocking evidence that after 1991, Russia's losses during the period of so called hybrid, info or Forth world war, are huge. According to some Russian sources the loses are 50-60 million people. For Russia the population is as important as the economic crisis, the relations with USA and China, the wars in Syria and Donbass, Eastern Europe etc.
In other words – during the last 25 years, Russia has registered 3 times bigger losses than during WWII. In the same time the population of Muslim countries grew by 50-80 %, of China and India – by 20-30 %. That is the demography attack against Russia – to leave the territory of the biggest country on Earth without population. After that it will be easy for conquer without missiles, tanks or soldiers.
For the same reason was organized the Ukraine coup, the separation of East Europe from Russia, the new Iron Curtain from Baltic to Black seas etc.
If Russia wants to take again the position of one of the world poles, needs at least 300 million population. And if Russia wants to become a global power needs about 600 million population .
That is the proof that the liberal capitalism after 1991 is demolishing that country. This is the system's trap. And the damages could not be leveled be the recovering of the military complex or the achievements in different fields in different regions.
It is clear that during the last 4 years Russia has economic decline. The government announces periodically that the recession is under control, but people know that it's not true. It is obvious that the investments can not cover even the reproduction.
Russian economy is in the trap of the system. And to get out of it, has to change the economic model. Things are not so complicated.
It's known that Putin doesn't like to change his cadres. And because of it is hostage of the people he works with. He doesn't want to replace them, and they don't want to change the model. That means that the decline will continue and the social and political tension will increase.
That is why Putin's international successes could turn into a negative , while Trump lacking the “imperial” resources available for Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. will use more simple means against Russia –the missiles in Poland and Romania, the provocations of Kiev in Donbass, the plots of Russian's oligarchs. Those are the same men who control “the deep state” in USA. They already ask Russia to “ give back” Crimea to Ukraine.
Despite the lessons from the past, Putin can't give up his hopes to be accepted by the West. But the only way Russia could be accepted by the West is as dependent vassal state.
Putin thinks that diplomacy could solve crisis in Ukraine. No way. Vain are the hopes of keeping Minsk's agreements, which are not supported by Kiev, Washington, London and NATO.
Russia can end the Ukraine crisis if agrees with the demands of the formal Russian territories to unite with Russia once again. After that the crisis will end.
But Putin is not ending the crisis, because he thinks that this will be a provocation toward Europe. This is Kremlin's failure, not success. Diplomacy is not working if one party believes in a fair play and the other - in a foul play.
Putin and Medvedev have to understand that all those “very smart plans” are not working. Russia, China and Iran are the main US and Western rivals. Agreements and collaboration are empty words and empty hopes. Even in Syria and Iraq, Moscow and Washington can not work together because they have totally different goals.
USA and Israel created Al-Queda and ISIS. American conservatives, every one of each, are Israeli puppets.
Countries, which don't think strategically will not survive in the new world and they will understand that pretty soon.