Syria: Peace Is at Hand (Part I)
By GPD on October 28, 2015
As the Russia-led coalition defeats ISIS & other terrorists in Syria and as Putin & Obama agree on expediting the peace process, when can we begin infrastructure development?
The US backed coalition
By Thomas J Mattingly –
As President Vladimir Putin’s Russia-led coalition defeats ISIS & other terrorists in population centers & strategic areas of western Syria, President Barack Obama is working quietly with Putin to eliminate all terrorists and to facilitate a win-win political transition for Syria etc. Even as U.S. rhetoric and actions continue to be bellicose, disjointed and chaotic, peace is at hand.
At Obama’s request & with Putin’s acceptance, Russia, U.S., Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Iran will continue Syrian peace process talks in Vienna that will lead to a relatively quick cessation of hostilities in Syria and a diplomatic agreement on a “Syrians-decide” political transition. Despite contrary outward appearances and despite treacherous pockets of resistance from U.S. factions and from some U.S. allies, Obama is changing U.S.-Mideast foreign policy in a major way.
In two days, Obama & Putin will continue 5+1-style Syria peace talks in Vienna — with Syria to hold 2016 elections to decide whether “Assad Must Go.” The next step may be — and is – to lift all sanctions to revive & accelerate Syrian, U.S., Russian & global/national economic recoveries.
Obama and Putin do more than shake hands at the United Nations on September 28, 2015.
The Obama-initiated Vienna peace process parlays (now with Russia, U.S., Saudi Arabia, Iran & Turkey) show the reluctant readiness of most major powers for a diplomatic deal to end the war in Syria. Although the parties disagree on President Bashar al-Assad’s future, all parties now tacitly agree that Syrians will make this choice. A few days ago, we learned that Assad is ready for Syrians to decide his fate in 2016. What a difference a day makes. Or a few days. Especially with the Russia-led coalition winning all major battles in the air and on the ground in Syria.
Former President Jimmy Carter has “back-channeled” Syria negotiations amongst all parties for 3+ years. Despite VT/my differences with Carter, what Carter says in his recent OpEd is mostly now happening. Despite Obama’s disingenuous bellicose bluster at UN, Obama unequivocally said: “The United States is willing to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict.” After Putin’s UN speech, Obama met privately with Putin and began to do so.
On September 30, Russia began to bomb terrorists in strategic areas of western Syria. U.S. officials continued diversionary bluster in public. Some U.S. factions and U.S. allies then F16-bombed civilian Aleppo electric & water plants (increasing refugee flows as the Russian coalition retakes Aleppo) and provided more weapons for “moderate terrorists.” Such brinksmanship & strategic stupidity only delays a now-inevitable peace – as bad as some factions think that is.
U.S.-led coalition members have done nothing significant to counter the Russia-led coalition in eliminating terrorists and in strengthening Syria & Assad. This enables diplomatic agreement on a political transition that all powers say should & would end the Syrian war. Even as NeoCon & Neo-Liberal U.S. factions and U.S. allies continue anti-Putin & anti-Assad bluster and do stupid stuff to delay peace, what Obama and allied officials are actually doing is hidden in plain sight (e.g., at UN and in Vienna). In “Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way,” Obama chose Door #3.
One Su-24 shut down Aegis & other U.S. weapons, Comms & tracking systems in the Black Sea in 2014. Anti-Kiev rebels used similar systems to win in Ukraine, and Russia is now using even-more-capable A2AD systems in Syria.
What the Russia-led Coalition Is Doing
Russia moved military jets, advisers & force protection into Syria in August/September. Despite loud protests from U.S./allies & Israel, no one did anything effective to counter this move. With Iraq, Iran & Syria, Russia established an intelligence sharing center in U.S.-controlled Iraq. U.S.-led coalition member Jordan just established an intel sharing center with Russia in Jordan. Jordan & Russia have invited other U.S. coalitionists to join and work together. Iraq just invited Russia to hit ISIS targets in Iraq, and Iran General Soleimani is leading Iraqi fighters against IS-U.S. & other terrorists in Aleppo. U.S. & allies are losing the anti-Assad war in Syria.
Russian & U.S. leaders have talked privately with top leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt & Israel etc. –as well as Iran, China, Iraq, CSTO, BRICS & EU+. Holographically projecting the above communication/action beams onto the chaos that is now the Syrian war (proxy-driven & otherwise) results in a “big picture” beginning to appear: Peace Is at Hand.
With sophisticated Russian electronic systems, Russia has established a 600-kilometer anti-access area-denial (A2AD) “bubble” stretching from Latakia to Aleppo to Incirlik Air Base and into the Mediterranean Sea. Russia can establish a no-fly zone over Syria at any time (which would also shut down U.S.-led coalition weapons systems). U.S. & allies cannot do this.
What Happened to the U.S.-led Coalition
Russia quietly & effectively facilitated A2AD in Ukraine, which in part forced U.S. coalition coup-puppet Poroshenko to announce “de-escalation” (i.e., concede defeat) on March 17. This effectively ended U.S./allied efforts to destabilize Russia with their Ukrainian debacle, anti-Russia sanctions and Syrian stupidity. World War 3 “hopes” then ebbed if not ended, since U.S. & allies were also slated to lose the anti-Russia-sanctions war & the Syria-regime-change war.
701MW Damascus gas-fueled electric plant (2015). U.S. F16s just bombed civilian Aleppo electric & water plants, depriving 2.5 million of essential services (creating more refugees). Russia did not respond.
EU nations are now eager to end anti-Russia sanctions, which are hurting EU, U.S. & others more so than sanctions are hurting Russia. Putin has managed Russian & other perceptions of & reactions to sanctions such that Putin is now more popular than ever in Russia & elsewhere.
If EU & U.S. do not soon end anti-Syria sanctions, then BRICS & allied nations will benefit from Syrian & Iraqi infrastructure development & rebuilding, while EU, U.S. & allies will be shut out. The Russia-led coalition, in tacit partnership with BRICS-aligned nations, has economically & militarily boxed the U.S. & allies. Obama knows this. When peace is inevitable, relax & enjoy it.
Benefits & Implications for U.S., Syria, Russia, Mid-East, BRICS & U.S./Russian Allies
In his UN speech, Obama said “The United States is willing to work with any nation, including Russia, to resolve conflict.” If true, then Obama’s declaration has wide-ranging ramifications for U.S., Mideast & global foreign policies. In addition, if so, then a different world order is dawning.
If or since Obama is also willing to work with the Russia-led coalition & others to eliminate Boko Haram & al-Qaeda-affiliated, Muslim Brotherhood terrorism in Africa, Asia, EU & elsewhere, then Russia, U.S., NATO, BRICS & others working together can & will eventually win. Maybe soon. If so, then this world will be – and already is – a radically different planet. Shift Happens.
If the old world order is dead; and if the new world order is now something different from what its designers intended it to be, then “The Few” and “The Many” can prosper together.
Syria, Iraq, Mideast, Africa, Asia, Americas, Russia & others have an abundance of gas, oil & coal for energy. We can also develop peaceful nuclear and other “New Energy” technologies to provide cheap and abundant energy. Energy can be and will be inexpensive. Forever.
With cheap energy, all necessary natural resources are abundant – but unevenly distributed. Unemployment is abundance of labor. Some need training. Both Capitalism & Socialism as we knew them are bankrupt or dead. In a world of abundance, all scarcity-based, supply-&-demand, economic equations are obsolete. BRICS/others are designing new systems. Asian, European, American & African nations are defecting to the new economic, monetary & banking systems.
Our world operates with scarcity/austerity-inducing Malthusian banking & currency systems for our national & global economies. If, as & when we switch to asset/productivity-backed banking & currency systems (e.g., “MMT”), then global prosperity will soar. “The Many” will benefit without taking much if anything from “The Few.” With a global abundance of all necessary resources, why would anyone (even religious fanatics) need to rob “The Few” to benefit “The Many”?
Russia, U.S., EU, Iran, BRICS & others cooperating to achieve peace in Syria & elsewhere has wide-ranging implications for prosperity for almost everyone on our little planet. Are you ready?
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Thomas J Mattingly is CEO of an infrastructure development company, owned a DC telecom company, was a Washington attorney, was active on 9/11 issues, and worked on MH370 & MH17 with Malaysians, while working on typhoon & quake recovery in the Philippines. He just accompanied Veterans Today to Syria as an observer and will soon return to Asia & Africa.