Will Putin run for a new term
Where the hot fall begins, there burning issues emerge. Will Assad manage to cope with the jihadists? Will the Chinese yuan become golden? Will the President Maduro in Venezuela dump the dollar from his oil balance? Will Trump be swept away by the US Red October? Will Kim III shoot missiles to Guam or will the Americans pull the trigger first? Whether British Elizabeth II is alive or they are showing the public her clone? Whether Merkel will win to Schultz, whether Netanyahu will finally face the court in Israel, will Messi score more goals than Ronaldo? And so on.
However, over this whole nest of issues, the main one has climbed – if Vladimir Putin will run for another term. This is right now “the question of all questions” - whether Putin will run for the Presidency again and if “yes”, what will be his election tactics and post-election ideology?
And there comes the second question: if not Putin, then who else?
As I am the only living journalist in Europe who has been following Putin’s emergence since the early 1990s, I will remind them very briefly.
Putin emerged from the middle of nowhere – coming from KGB in Leningrad and after a short stay in GDR. Which means that he was completely unprepared for great deeds, and also lacked rudimentary administrative and political experience.
Putin became a successor under quite bizarre circumstances and on the ruins left to him by the alcoholic-democrat Yeltsin, and Gorbachev – the Perestroika man, who both turned Russia into a pale ghost of the great Empire.
On the international arena, Russia was a secondary regional state, a global gas station, a territory with huge resources, which decomposition had already begun - that part goes to the United States, that we give to England, and on the right - to Turkey, that piece on the back is nice for Japan, here, around the sea goes to Germany.
All that perfectly repeated the time of the intervention against Russia in 1917-1922. The former enemies did not hide their plans. They thought that the bear was no longer breathing.
Inside Russia - privatization, inflation, devaluation, corruption, racketeering, murder, and mafia - complete degradation of the state. Loss of population and territories, robbery and about 100 trillion dollars looted into Western banks.
There were two options left for him - either to bury the country or to save it. Putin chose the second one, with no experience, no vertical or party support. The situation was critical.
Nevertheless, bit by bit, day after day and month after month, Russia began to stand up, though painfully and with creak-and- squeak trial-and-error manner but up to the point where it again turned into a great power, on a par with the United States and China.
People started talking about a "Putin Doctrine" but everyone interpreted it as he wanted.
Putin’s silovic vertical caste was seeing the doctrine as stability and heredity.
For the business, the "Putin Doctrine" was the permission to legalize their criminally accumulated wealth.
The military saw the doctrine as the glory of Russia. And etc.
However, did Putin really have/has a doctrine or an ideology?
In fact, he is not a theoretician, but an intelligence officer. Intelligence people have different way of thinking. Every doctrine is vulnerable. For the intelligence officer who works under cover as President, the most important thing is not the doctrine, but pragmatism, which means that things should work.
That is why as for ideology and doctrines are concerned, Putin is a liberal and a conservative, а patriot and а cosmopolitan, he acknowledges capitalism but does not abuse socialism, he goes to church but does not throw curses on atheists. he is a Slavophil but not a and a Germanophobe.
Practically, no one can tell what Putin is, what is his face and doctrine.
This is how a question arose: “Who is Putin”. That question stands for 17 years.
Putin has already answered it, but it went unnoticed: "What is a doctrine? Russia has always been in a difficult situation, and it had never been easy. What doctrine? We should work to ensure that Russia is stable, and just, and rich, and great. That Russia is simply To be. You can finish writing the rest by yourselves”.
This is his assessment what doctrine and ideology shall be. One should work for Russia.
This lays on the scales when assessing Putin, and the pros began to weigh over the minuses, especially over those from the past.
This is the main vector and the answer to the question of who is actually Putin: a victim of the usurpation of power, its hostage or an accomplice.
The answer is that Putin is a Russian patriot who has begun as a hostage to the ruins inherited by Gorbachev and Yeltsin, but who would not hand Russia to the mercy of the globalists and the winners in the Cold War.
Now he has to step out of the system he inherited. This will be the most difficult part.
Most probably, such opinion of Putin prevails in the darkest cabinets of the West as they turned him into a "main enemy". They are preparing him the fate of Milosevic and Gaddafi, although Putin, for e reasons that are still unclear to me, continues to call them “partners”.
Some known analysts wrote to him "the West is not Russia's partner, but an enemy". Putin is being demonized by them for 10 years. Russia is practically in a situation of international isolation and there are undisguised hints that "if you remove Putin, everything will change". Thus, the West is trying to gain at its side the Russian Fifth Column letting them know that Putin's candidacy for a next term does not appear desirable.
What does Putin think himself? Will he run for a new term?
At the beginning of August, he gave an answer to this question "I will think about it, thank you".
The Kremlin administration said that Putin had all the constitutional rights allowing him to run for a new term.
Putin later said, "The President is not an appointed official. The President can be elected by people only."
Earlier in September, some information emerged from the presidential administration that Putin's candidacy to president would take place in the near future and would be in two stages. The first would be an announcement of his consent to run for a new term, and the second - a tight presidential campaign.
Probably Putin will announce his candidacy by the end of October, and the campaign will be tight, as the election must be appointed between 7th and 17th November but not later than 20 days after the registration of the said i.e. latest 6th January 2018.
Obviously, everything has already been decided. In recent months, Putin has paid the debts to and settled the accounts with all – Yeltsinists, oligarchs from the Jewish mafia, Kremlin power brokers, fellow party members, etc.
He is not in debt to anyone anymore. He is almost completely independent and he wants to become the President of people.
This will be his last term and last chance. He will probably give at last a fight to corruption and will start resolving Russia's domestic problems to return its wealth, dignity and normality.
Will they allow him to do so? No way. The West will face him with stronger fearsome resistance. Demonization of Putin will continue. The isolation of Russia will be intensified. The junta in Kiev will try to start a war. They will want to spoil the world football championship in Russia and to prevent its participation in the next Olympics.
But Russia had times that were more painful. In fact, it has never been easy for Russia. This is its permanent modus – never to be easy.
Will Putin take the next step as the President of people – to prove that the socialism is not a past, but a future? We will see.
Of course, we should consider a situation where Putin will not nominate or will be hindered to do so. Then who instead?
There are only two considerable nominations now. The first is of the Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and the second is that of Alexey Dyumin. The West should really bethink itself.
Most probably, Shoygu will keep his post as Putin’s Minister of Defense, while Dyumin will become the new Prime Minister.
During Putin's demonstration lesson with Russian youth, he said, "We need a breakthrough, or they will crush us".
In this endeavor, Putin will need the support of all Russians, their internal "nuclear reactor", which works as effectively as possible "only in a regime of common cause, common ideals and common values."
Am I right? As always, there are more questions than answers. We will get the first answer in the nearest future - who will be the next President of Russia.