USA – DPRK: All ready for the battle. Right now, the war is inevitable.
Krassimir Ivandjiiski / Красимир Иванджийски/
The threat of a full-scale nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula reached its highest figures for the past ten years. When you read these lines, the war may have begun or may have not. That is how it is with wars.
Immediately upon entering the White House, Donald Trump declared that the DPRK was a capital threat to the United States. Since then, his speeches about Pyongyang have become more belligerent and threatening.
Along with the DPRK Trump included Iran and Russia, into the new "axis of evil." In response to that, starting January 2017, Pyongyang made 11 launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles, two of which on July 4th and 29th respectively. They can cover the entire territory of the United States with a flight range of more than 10,000 km.
These missiles have entirely changed the strategic balance between the US and North Korea.
Trump threatened that North Korea would face "fire and the fury like the world has never seen" and several US strategic bombers flew over the Korean Peninsula.
In response, the DPRK announced that they would launch four missiles towards the US military base in Guam.
The launch of the two intercontinental ballistic missiles by the DPRK has also introduced a new strategic moment to the global aspect. According to the Pentagon, the maximum height these missiles reached was 3700 km, and they were in flight for about four minutes.
The new estimations suddenly revealed that DPRK could now not only cover the Western Coast of the United States but all major American cities including Denver, Chicago, Boston, New York and Washington.
The threat by DPRK to launch missiles towards Guam came after the Pentagon announced its plan to blow a non-nuclear strike on 20 military targets in North Korea, such as missile launch pads using B-1B strategic bombers that are deployed just in Guam.
The North Korean missiles that are to be used against Guam are most probably Hwasong – 12 with a range of up to 6,000 km. The other primary missile is Hwasong – 14 with a flight range of 10,000 km, capable to cover the entire US.
At the same time, the DPRK authorities dispatched emergency orders to all party committees and civil defense units. Such actions are taken only in extreme situation, and when the country goes to war. Information emerged that the army has received new reinforcement of 3.5 million people, which means that a military mobilization was also carried out.
South Korea announced that they would insist the Pentagon to deploy an additional THAAD counter missile defense system, which in turn Beijing immediately opposed, calling on Seoul and Washington to end the deployment of ABM and THAAD.
Even without North Korean nuclear weapons, the main danger to the US and South Korea is the North Korean artillery dispersed alongside the Demilitarized Zone. According to different sources, there are from 8,000 to 23,000 artillery gun barrels, only 50 km away from Seoul. The concentration of such artillery fire on the width and depth of the front will be terrifying for the enemy.
The US B-1B strategic bombers that fly over the peninsula can carry MOAB bombs. At the same time, rumors say that Seoul is preparing for an upcoming evacuation.
The US Pacific Fleet commander Scott Swift said in Australia, "his fleet is capable of delivering a massive nuclear strike on China even next week.” His words are just a crumb of the aggressive behavior of the US military highest ranks towards China since Trump's arrival at the White House.
From a technical point of view, Swift has his grounds to make such bellicose statements. The arithmetic is simple: 10 out of the 18 US Ohio class nuclear submarines armed with Trident and Trident II ballistic missiles with a range of 7,400 km to 10,000 km operate in the Pacific. One sub carries 24 missiles, and a single one can bring to the territory of the enemy eight warheads of 450 kilotons each or 14 warheads of 100 kilotons. Thus, at a given moment the US strategists can rain down on China one-third of its nuclear arsenal without even sailing into the patrol zone of the Chinese subs. They could launch Tridents from within the US territorial waters – from Hawaii islands for example.
In the case of an attack by the United States, The DPRK's plan provides for a total war, not a "limited low-intensity conflict."
This plan has three aspects.
First, the total war is the DPRK's strategy in case of US pre-emptive attacks. The war in Iraq has shown that Americans can deliver pre-emptive strikes in violation of all international treaties and that the UN is helpless to stop them. Any nation that is weak as military force may become a victim of the United States.
Second, the DPRK does not expect any assistance from China, Russia or any other country in case of war with the United States. Pyongyang knows they will have to fight for themselves against the superpower of the world. Formally, China and Russia are allies of North Korea, but they are unlikely to provide any tangible military assistance to the DPRK if a war breaks. Of course, if the war drags on, Beijing and Moscow will provide necessary support to address their strategic objectives.
Third, North Korea's total war has two components – a full-scale conventional war and use of weapons of mass destruction.
If the US hits the nuclear installations of North Korea, they will strike back on US targets with weapons of mass destruction. Americans are well aware of that and have their nuke plans. In a possible exchange of nuclear strikes, there will be no front lines or backlands. Nuclear weapons are instruments of attack, and there is no defense against a nuclear strike except a counter atomic attack.
That is why the DPRK's military strategy is mainly offensive and goes beyond defeat of US attacks and up far to the destruction of the United States. The US 5027 war plan provides for military tailoring of North Korea, i.e., it goes far beyond a simple elimination of their weapons of mass destruction.
The US considers the DPRK as their main enemy and vice versa. South Korea also considers the DPRK as their primary enemy, but North Korea does not look on their southern neighbor as a main enemy, as they understand that Seoul is a client of the United States and that they are not capable to behave independently from the US.
The North Korean plan includes attack and occupation of South Korea and destruction of the States.
All countries keep their potential military secret.
The DPRK is not an exception, and it is challenging to assess its military power. The US claims to be acquainted with these secrets and use different surveillance equipment. US planes U-2, RC-135, and FP-3 fly over the DPRK round the clock. Moreover, at least 70 US spy satellites KH-11 are hanging over North Korea. However, all US intelligence data regarding the DPRK potential proved to be wrong. Donald Gregg, a former US ambassador in Seoul and CIA veteran admits that American spying on North Korea is “the longest and biggest failure.”
The DPRK are using underground optic cables in their military communications, and it is almost impossible to plant US moles in the country.
That is why the picture of North Korea’s war potential is quite blur. The DPRK has annual production of about 200,000 Kalashnikov automatic rifles, 3,000 heavy machine and artillery guns, 200 tanks, 400 armored vehicles, and amphibians.
The DPRK has its submarines, high-speed boats, and other warships. Local production allows the country to maintain enormous military power at low budget costs.
The DPRK has 17 small arms and light artillery factories, 35 ammunition plants, five warships construction sites, three missile production facilities, five manufacturers of communication equipment and eight biochemical weapons plants or overall total of 134 military installations. Besides, a lot of factories are oriented to dual-purpose production and by a minimum of adjustments, they can shift to military production. All facilities are secured by independent individual power supply, which the US can hardly destroy.
The DPRK is a mountainous country with a long and rugged coastline. The Peninsula is narrow, and the DPRK's tactics match this geography. North Korea has exceptional military plans to wage war against the United States.
The military is organized into several independent and self-sustaining combat formations that are ready for action at any time.
The army of the North is motivated and loyal. The regular army of the DPRK includes four corpses at the front line, eight corps in the background and one corps to defend Pyongyang. South Korea has 19 mechanized divisions against 80 divisions and brigades of the North Korea. Paramilitary organizations are fully equipped and hold regular army maneuvers.
We speak about an army of six million people that is armed at all points, motivated and has an enormous conventional weapons potential most probably in combination of weapons of mass destruction.
We have repeatedly discussed the various aspects of the North Korea weapon and missile arsenal. We will remind the audience the DPRK is a nuclear state along with the United States, Russia, China, England, France, India, Pakistan, and Israel. Pyongyang has nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them to target. The DPRK has a fleet of intercontinental ballistic missiles and mid-range missiles armed with nuclear warheads. According to some sources, we talk about 80 atomic explosives. Others say the North has more than 100 nukes including thermo-nuclear and hydrogen bombs.
Perhaps the DPRK could produce 100 missiles per year. Today, the US has no real protection against North Korean missiles if war breaks.
The DPRK also has an enormous stock of biochemical weapons. All army corpses have their chemical units. The population continually prepares for a biochemical attack on the territory of the North.
One of the most distinctive feature of the DPRK's military training is its underground fortifications. There are 8,236 underground defense facilities connected by tunnels. They storage more than 1.2 million tons of food, 1.46 million tons of fuel and 1.67 million tons of ammunition. Most of the underground facilities are dug into granite rocks. The main bunker-buster missile of the US - B61 Mod 11 can penetrate up to six meters of rock. Their latest laser-guided GBU-28 bomb can penetrate up to thirty meters; however, North Korean bunkers have at least 80 meters of solid rock roof slap.
The latest achievement of the DPRK is its potential to fight an electronic war. Pyongyang began to prepare for it in the 1970s and now has countermeasures against a potential US electronic warfare. Every year Pyongyang trains at least 100 hackers and has its battalion to write computer viruses. They are capable to blow an electronic strike on the US computer networks.
Back in 1991, the DPRK won a simulated war against the US by both nuclear and conventional weapons. If a new war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the United States will meet an adversary that is capable of genuinely leading a total war and where Americans will practically be defenseless, and mutual destruction may occur, as was the situation with the USSR years ago.
That is the most crucial aspect of DPRK's strategy against the US based on the mutual nuclear deterrence. The United States speeded up deployment of the American THAAD ABM squadron to South Korea. They decided to deploy this system much earlier, and Pyongyang's missiles came as a countermeasure to defeat the long-announced US THAAD, not vice versa. Also, THAAD could be used as a radar for tracking missile activity in China, and as an early missile attack warning system, which means that Beijing will react.
Moreover, the DPRK indicates the potential targets of its missiles and namely the US bases in Japan and South Korea. The goal is to guarantee unacceptable damages to the United States, South Korea, and Japan in the event of their attempted assault on the DPRK. All latest launches by North Korea aim to attain that goal. Donald Trump decided to send US B-52 nuclear strategic bombers to South Korea. Beijing reacted against these measures, as they understood that they were directed against China as well. The above means that the multilateral arms race in the region is gaining momentum.
The US already deployed Patriot PAL-2 surface-to-air missile systems that have combat height of up to 25 km. THAAD will be deployed and will have acquisition range of 1,000 km, striking range of 250 km and at heights of 150 km, which means they will be capable to intercept ballistic missiles.
Moscow will also support the DPRK and China because the US missile defense system in South Korea is the same as the US missile defense systems in Poland and Romania, against which Moscow vigorously protested. As a response, the Kremlin deployed their Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region.
The US needs a new great war, and the Korean Peninsula matches entirely to this purpose. In addition, a potential for such a conflict has long ago ramped up. If this possibility turns into war, the US will resolve their issues with the DPRK, China and largely with Russia and will eliminate South Korea and Japan as trade competitors.
However, this is just a theory. In real life, generally speaking, the DPRK is neither Syria nor Libya, nor Ukraine, nor even today's Russia. North Korea is a state that for 70 years well knows how to defend its sovereignty.
When the US issued their new warning, the North Koreans did not hide but instead gave firm and principal response.
First, in the event of an US provocation they set out their targets such as the US carrier group, the US military base in South Korea and the president's residence in Seoul. Then they ignored the ultimatum and did what they promised - on April 15, they launched a ballistic missile.
The US political establishment is cowardly by nature. They strike only the weak and the feeble but avoid those who could bear the blow. It is a simple principle – just hit if you are sure not to receive a strike back, otherwise look for other mechanisms of the hybrid war.
The attacks on Syria, Iraq, and Libya were carried not because they had been weak, but because they lacked resources to defend themselves against the more powerful blow from the United States and Israel.
Iran and North Korea could struggle in military, informational, political and economic aspect.
Events continue to develop further, and contradictions are still insuperable. At this point, the war seems inevitable.
“Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded,” Trump said.
Pyongyang responded just as symmetric and Trump immediately backed out.
However, Pyongyang would hardly have a better time